Fertility and family policy in Norway - A reflection on trends and possible connections

Below replacement fertility in many countries has lead to a renewed public interest in policies that may encourage young people to have more children. The Nordic countries are sometimes in focus in this respect, as their fertility rates remain relatively high in spite of very high female labour force participation. The key question is therefore whether there is a connection between generous public policies that facilitate childbearing and employment, and fertility. Using Norway as example and reviewing existing research evidence I conclude that generous family policies may be necessary, but not sufficient, to sustain fertility at a reasonable level. In particular, adverse macroeconomic conditions and rising unemployment have counteracting effects, as demonstrated by falling fertility rates in Sweden in the mid-1990s. 1 Division for Social and Demographic Research, Statistics Norway, P.O. Box 8131 Dep, N-0033 Oslo, Norway. Tel: +4721094475. Fax: +4721090040. E-mail: [email protected] Demographic Research – Volume 10, Article 10 http://www.demographic-research.org 266 1. Fertility an issue for prime ministers? When the former Norwegian Prime Minister Jens Stoltenberg gave the traditional television speech on New Year's Day 2001, his opening remarks may have taken quite a few listeners by surprise. Rather than focusing on the economy and the progress made as is usual, he began by congratulating Norwegian parents and mothers in particular, for having given birth to so many children in the last year. In hardly any other western country, he pointed out, do women have more children than in Norway. And at the same time women also get educated and take part in the labour market to a larger extent than in most other countries. According to Mr. Stoltenberg, the high fertility could be regarded as an expression of people's optimistic views on the future and the "quality" of our society. He did not elaborate on what the meant by "quality", but he did mention women's extensive ability to combine children and paid work, and presumably had in mind a society that facilitates such combination strategies. This paper investigates the possible connection between fertility and family policy in Norway. As a point of departure, I first present a comparative picture of Norwegian fertility trends, primarily in relation to other countries in the Nordic region, but also to a couple of low-fertility countries in Europe and Asia, respectively: Spain and Japan. Then we shall go behind the Norwegian trend and look closer at some of the underlying fertility components. Finally, I shall give a brief overview of family policies in Norway, and discuss more fully the question of a possible fertility impact. 2. Contrasting fertility trends Like many other countries, Norway experienced a "baby boom" after the Second World War. The "boom" was, however, more long-lasting than in many other countries, and at the beginning of the 1970s the total fertility rate in Norway was still as high as 2.5. In comparison, the fertility level of the other Nordic countries (except Iceland) was already below 2 children per woman (Figure 1). Throughout most of the 1970s, fertility was declining in all Nordic countries, except in Finland where there was a temporary rise during the mid-1970s. In the early 1980s, fertility in Norway and Sweden had stabilised around 1.6-1.7, with a so far alltime low in 1983 for both countries with 1.66 and 1.61, respectively. In Denmark the fertility decline continued on into the early 1980s, but hit a historic bottom in exactly the same year as in Norway and Sweden, 1983, with a rate just below 1.4. In contrast to the other Nordic countries, Finland had a short period of rising fertility in the early 1980s, succeeded by a temporary fall to a level of about 1.6 in 1986-1987. Demographic Research – Volume 10, Article 10 http://www.demographic-research.org 267 0 0,5 1,0 1,5 2,0 2,5 3,